BMTI – Trend Experts for Shipping

Atlantic Panamaxes stay in bearish mode
Panamax freights remain under pressure in the Atlantic with trans-Atlantic round voyages having fallen into the four-digit range of high US$ 9,000s daily on Continental delivery. (p. 1)

Improved revenues reported by Scorpio Bulkers
Scorpio Bulkers (listed on the NYSE under SALT) said its losses for the last quarter of 2017 were “lower than expected”, paying a dividend to investors, despite still having failed to turn a profit in the quarter. (p. 1)

Relative stability among Far East Handysizes
Handysize freights, while also under pressure, saw less pronounced declines in the past week with only about US$ 100-200 reduced on average freights, leaving the Aussie rounds to NoPac in the high US$ 6,000s on tonnage of 28,000 dwt. (p. 2)

BMTI’s Shipping Technology Monitor – 2018 *

In the Study »Shipping Technology Monitor« BMTI presents a wide selection of it’s own coverage of today’s leading trends in ship design and propulsion, including many contributions from technology experts in their own sectors of the shipping economy who have shared their knowledge and opinions on the subject.

• Green Shipping (essays about the future of shipping in a world of changing emissions standards)
• Expected broking & economic trends from every sector
• Ship Design (opinions and detailed accounts from industry thought leaders and ship designers)
• Digitalisation (emerging technologies including Big Data, cryptocurrencies and online shipbroking)
• Cybercrime (electronic threats to maritime security and new ways to guard against them)
• Automation (robotics, drones, 3D printing and the promise of autonomous shipping)

There are still convincing macroeconomic reasons to expect the eastern Capesizes to rebound in 2018, indeed to strengthen after Q2, including urgent coal demand to China (as domestic production continues to fall) and a general increase in mineral demand throughout the Far East. For the moment, however, the Capesize spot market is anything but bullish as charterers seem to have no problem withdrawing their business for the time being, even with the shift into February having little perceptible impact on sentiment. Front hauls are still in free fall with rates for trans-Atlantic round voyages plummeting before the weekend by nearly as much as US$ 2,000 to hit US$ 11,500-12,000 daily on modern 180,000 dwt units. Pacific rounds are quite bearish as well with rates in the low teens of US$ 12-12,500 daily after spending them in the mid-high teens just last week.

It’s hard to imagine Panamax voyages from ECSA to China were getting US$ 33/mt two weeks ago as they have tumbled to half of that—about US$ 14-15/mt—in the current market. Activity hasn’t fallen off completely; indeed, things remain lively enough. But cargo demand is still falling short of available ships, a recipe for correction. In the event, front haul trips have fallen into the low US$ 20,000s of US$ 21-22,000 with some owners already offering US$ 20,500. Period inquiry, nonetheless, remains strong.

It is the same story with Handy bulkers as charterers take advantage of an over-tonnaged market, hoping to push rates downward by keeping their cargoes under wraps. This has only come with mixed suc­cess, however, as Pacific rates have generally held steady or taken just minimal declines. Discounts are more pronounced in the Atlantic with USG delivery still falling (US$ 22,000 now on Supra front haul), but front hauls are holding on Continental delivery.

…read more in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Considerably more Capesize fixtures and news of activity bubble up to the surface as the week ends, but nothing consistent or extensive enough to justi­fy a recovery. Indeed, the spot market is as disparate as it has been all week with only long-term period time charterers of any interest to charterers, seem­ingly, at the moment, with year long durations done anywhere from US$ 18,000 to US$ 20,000 daily on worldwide redelivery. Long haul rates, meanwhile, continue their collapse as Pacific rounds and TARVs each lose nearly US$ 3,000 to settle at around US$ 10,000 daily and US$ 26,000 daily, respectively.

Renewed support in the Panamax derivatives sphere on Q1 (settling near US$ 11,000) suggests the mak­ings of a bounce next week, brokers are telling us, but for the time being spot freights continue to slide in both East and West. The fact that average Panamax rates closed out 2017 more than 60% than where they started would seem to indicate potential for further gains in the mid-term, if not the short-term.

Supramaxes are firing on all cylinders in the Atlan­tic, particularly from the lively USG market, where owners can now ask for upwards of US$ 25,000 daily for a front haul and stand a good chance of getting it. This is compared low US$ 20,000s avail­able just a week ago. Similarly, trans-Atlantic trips USG/UKC-Med are fetching US$ 22-23,000 daily on DOP. Inter-Continental Handysizes have been securing fertilizers on 38-42,000 dwt ships at rates in the high US$ 7,000s amid rumours of US$ 8,000.

…read more in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Supras see recovery in Black Sea front hauls
After a slow stretch at the start of the week, the Supras saw a renewed sense of urgency just before the weekend, helping lift Black Sea front hauls back toward US$ 17,000 daily on Supras to CJK. (p. 1)

Atlantic voyages firmer on smaller tonnage
Ore rates from Liberia to GNS for a 50,000mt cargo have reached US$ 16/mt. Fertilizer charterers were seeing tonnage at US$ 19/mt for 25,000mt from Dakar to the US Gulf. (p. 2)

Eastern Handysizes steady amid slowing activity
Southeast Asia trips via Australia to NoPac are giving ships of 28-32,000 dwt freights in the mid US$ 8,000s much as they were at the start of December. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Supramaxes see new signs of support
Rate trends have begun to look up for the embattled Supramaxes due to a resurgence among the biggest bulkers and a return of demand in SE Asia. (p. 1)

Firm trends remain in Black Sea coaster freights
Owners insist a strong upside remains in place, helping them get modest upgrades over last-done levels, however broadly speaking rates have moved only marginally upward in the past week, suggesting that they may have reached a momentary peak. (p. 1)

Containerships moving into reefer market share
Reefer ships transport 21% of all seaborne perishable cargo; their share of reefer capacity is only 5%. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Rate trends peak at three-year high
Dry bulk rates have collapsed on average with the BDI having declined for the first time in nearly two weeks. The index reached a 3.5-year high last week. Average Panamax earnings have stabilized at around US$ 11,750 daily on TC basis. (p. 1)

Eastbound Handies encounter turbulence
Handysize tonnage of 35,000 dwt was fixed to Morocco from Brazil at US$ 15,000 daily, which market is also showing signs of easing. (p. 1)

Coasters: September recovery continues apace
The ascendant trends that were kicked off in the last few weeks have come home to roost in the second half of September with firming movements observed all across the northern markets. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

European Short Sea Index (EUSSIX) for Dry Bulk and Break Bulk

BMTI is pleased to announce the first official publication of the European Short Sea Index in the BMTI Short Sea Report of 23 August 2017. To meet the need for a comprehensive indicator of Europe’s short sea mar­ket, BMTI has developed the “European Short Sea Index” or in abbreviated form “EUSSIX”.

The EUSSIX index is generated by weighted inputs from BMTI’s three main regional indices: Northern Europe, Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea-Azov. The EUSSIX, a directional index to be published on a weekly basis, is the result of the aggregated freights for dry bulk cargoes transported in Europe and adja­cent regions with ships between 1,000-20,000 dwt.

In contrast to deep sea and intercontinental mari­time transport, short sea shipping is restricted to relatively short distances along the coast and ships in the size range that fall below the typical Handysize vessel description. As such, the world recognized and referenced Baltic Dry Index cannot serve this sector of commercial shipping as a reliable economic indicator. The European short sea market has long needed such an index for its own vibrant and volatile market. BMTI, with years of experience intensively observing, analysing and collecting data from the sector, has decided to meet this demand with this new index, to be published on a weekly basis. In utilising relationships with Europe’s short sea in­dustry players, BMTI is in the process of expanding our freight inputs to strengthen the reach of the EUSSIX. Any additional short sea market players who would like to participate in contributing to this new short sea index are welcome to contact BMTI.

Index calculation is based on current data for dry bulk and break bulk freight rates in the European short sea market.

It was a mildly positive week for listed bulk carrier firms on Wall Street with the emergence of im­proved rates among the bigger bulker sizes helping boost stocks prices ever so slightly. DryShips Inc. [DRYS] ended the week back near US$ 1 per share after spiking by 50% at midweek. DRYS has been flirting with investor volatility all year with a series of reverse stock splits that have kept investors ready to pounce on the next opportunity for a quick turn­around. The rest of the more traditional listed stocks steadily rose through midweek with Navios Mari­time Holdings briefly rising 15% before ending the week at a 5% premium above US$ 1. Stronger stocks included Scorpio Bulkers Inc [SALT] which held steady all week near US$7.35 and Star Bulk Carriers Corp [SBLK], which climbed 3.5% over the week to close at just under US$ 10 per share. Safe Bulkers, Inc. [SB] increased by a respectable 8% through the week to end at US$ 2.6 per share on the NYSE.

One of the largest bulker companies in the world, Pacific Basin, has reached an agreement to acquire five bulk carriers for a combined US$ 104.6m. Own­ers welcomed the move as it would keep total bulker capacity from expanding while consolidating ton­nage simultaneously. The five vessels include one 2014-built Handysize, two 2014-built Supramaxes, one 2016-built Supramax and one resale Supramax.

A new joint venture, Ivy Shipping LLC, has been launched by Paris Kassidokostas-Latsis with the in­tent of acquiring Supramax and Panamax bulk carri­ers. The new JV has already acquired four Japanese-built Supramaxes of build year 2011 to be delivered next month and to be managed by Marla Ship­management Ltd. Mr. Kassidokostas-Latsis, who had previously invested in LPG and tanker ships, says his new direction into bulker was based on considering current market conditions, seeing potential in the market and collaborating with strategic investors.

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

South American energy fizzles for Panamaxes
Lower interest in the Atlantic took a toll on sentiment as Kamsarmaxes ex-Continent via NCSA get middle US$ 9,000s DOP back to the UKC-Med. (p. 1)

Coasters: New transhipment regs focus in Azov
The wreck of the “Geroi Arsenala” in April triggered a new round of disputes about transhipment. (p. 1)

Far East Handysizes see surprising stability
Results have been mixed for the Far East Han- dysizes, but certain routes have gained more momentum in the past week including the Aussie rounds from SE Asia to NoPac, which climbed more than US$ 200 week-on-week to enter the low-middle US$ 6,000s daily for tonnage of 28-32,000 dwt. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Handy bulk rumoured rising in South Atlantic
The South Atlantic Handy bulk trades are rumoured to be seeing more interest for mid-month positions as ECSA trips to the Continent are said to be in talks for up to US$ 6,000 daily on Supramax tonnage. (p. 1)

Coasters: Trips to the north see steady rates
Northbound shipments from the Turkish Med to Ireland are getting steady freights of mid EUR 20s/mt with EUR 25.5/mt observed on a 5,000mt parcel. (p. 1)

Business booming for Moroccan fertilizers
Granular phosphate exports from Morocco surged 34% year-on-year over the first four months of the year, according to the Foreign Trade Bureau. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Trends are ascendant for the Capesizes for the first time in nearly two weeks with average rates up by 4-5% at midweek. There is said to be more action be­low the surface with a likelihood of more fixtures by the afternoon. For now, Pacific ore voyages are the main deals with Dampier/Qingdao steady at US$ 6.2/mt on tonnage of 170,000mt. The Pacific round for Capesizes jumped US$ 700 to US$ 13,000 via Japan. TARVs grain US$ 250 to reach US$ 11,500 daily via Conti­nent where general sentiment is lightly buoyant.

Panamax activity has grown modestly on the Conti­nental front haul into the middle US$ 13,000s, but the market itself remains broadly flat. Trans-Atlantic rounds have stabilized at about US$ 7,250 daily but are under pressure with a downside. South America, some brokers say, is returning to the market as grain purchasing resumes, thus boosting front haul trades. The ECSA Kamsarmaxes to NoPac are securing APS rates near US$ 12,000 daily plus US$ 500,000 BB.

Modest indications of recovery in the Atlantic at the start of the week start to build some momentum in Handy bulk markets by midweek on signs that USG front hauls are on the way back up as upwards of US$ 20,000 daily is secured to CJK on 58,000 dwt ships. Also from the USG, trans-Atlantic trips to the Continent have also been showing signs of improve­ment with middle teens of up to US$ 15,000 daily obtainable on Ultramaxes on UKC-Med redelivery, sources report. The South American exports are still sporadic with some brokers describing the market as “catch as catch can” given the lack of consistent trend from the ECSA agri-prod spot markets. At any rate, Handysizes of 32,000 dwt have been securing lower teens of US$ 12,500 daily from ECSA into the Far East, we are told, which is a significant upgrade from last week. Then again, we also hear that pressure is growing on this run with one Supra recently unable to secure anything higher than US$ 12,000 DOP.

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Corrective days ahead for Panamaxes?
Technical analysis of futures markets last week were already suggesting Panamaxes were poised to enter a corrective phase and the start of this week seems to give that theory more credence with little fresh business emerging to prop up freights. (p. 1)

Attraction remains for Supras into the US Gulf
The USG stays tempting for Supras and Ultras whilst the Handysizes still trail their larger brethren. (p. 1)

Notable rise in containership sales YTD
Activity in the secondhand containership market has been considerably stronger in 2017 than in 2016 with the first quarter of the year seeing around 59 containerships sold (261,911 TEU) compared to just 28 containerships (79,126 TEU) sold second¬hand in the same quarter last year. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.

Recovery seen in Panamax front hauls
Panamax front hauls get a modest revival at the end of the week as a surge in eastbound demand from South America and the Continent helps push rates back up by some US$ 500 into the high teens of US$ 17-18,000 on UKC delivery—or even up to US$ 20,000 on ECI redel from the Continent. (p. 1)

Black Sea Handies looking bubbly with grains
Handysize grain stems continue emerging from the Black Sea trade area, with Bunge quoting 25,000mt from Nikolayev to Morocco, talking US$ 12-13/mt basis free d/a at loading. (p. 1)

Indian Ocean highlight for eastern Handies
The buoyancy in the Indian Ocean market seems to be unbroken. (p. 2)

…continue reading in today’s BMTI Daily Report.